Shrinking the Malaria Map

UCSF Global Health Group’s Malaria Elimination Initiative (MEI)

Progress

National Progress

More than half of the world’s countries have eliminated malaria from their borders. The map below shows the current global malaria landscape by country. The MEI tracks progress towards malaria elimination primarily in thirty-five countries, all of which have formally declared an evidence-based national goal and embarked on a malaria elimination strategy. Taken together, these eliminating countries have made substantial gains in driving down malaria since 2000 and achieved a marked decrease in reported cases from 2014 to 2015. Reported cases fell by an estimated 89% between 2000 and 2015 and by approximately 36% from 2014 to 2015, which compares with a 7% decline in reported cases from 2013 to 2014.

A growing number of countries are aiming for and achieving elimination:

  • Kyrgyzstan and Sri Lanka received WHO malaria-free certification in 2016.
  • Azerbaijan, Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Turkey maintained zero cases of local transmission in 2015.
  • Tajikistan achieved zero local cases in 2015.

Reported malaria cases declined from 2014 to 2015 in the following 16 countries: Belize, Bhutan, Botswana, Cabo Verde, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, El Salvador, Malaysia, Mexico, Namibia, Nepal, Panama, South Africa, Swaziland, Thailand, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.

Reported malaria cases increased from 2014 to 2015 in the following 12 countries: Algeria, China, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Iran, Nicaragua, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sao Tome & Principe, Saudi Arabia, and the Solomon Islands.

[green]
Malaria-free >3 years
[blue]
Malaria-free < 3 years
[magenta]
Eliminating malaria
[pink]
Controlling malaria

Regional Progress

Global malaria eradication will be achieved region by region, requiring greater collaboration among bordering countries. One of the biggest challenges to eliminating malaria is cross-border transmission and importation.  Mosquitoes carrying the malaria parasite know no borders. Regional initiatives formalize collaboration among countries and create an enabling environment that will help achieve elimination targets. Regional collaborations catalyze political commitment, build consensus and engagement on achieving regional goals, facilitate information sharing, and harmonize technical approaches across countries. 

  • Asia Pacific Malaria testing: A trained Village Malaria Worker (VMW) tests a patient for malaria in Dey Krahorm village, Veal Veng district, Pusat province, Cambodia. Lina Kharn/University Research Co., LLC 2013 Courtesy of Photoshare
    Collaborations
    • Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network
    • Asia Pacific Leaders Malaria Alliance
    • Emergency Response to Artemisinin Resistance & Malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Subregion
    • Regional Artemisinin-resistance Initiative
  • Africa Nurses stand outside a public health clinic in a rural area of Kwa Zulu Natal, on the outskirts of Durban, South Africa.
    Collaborations
    • Elimination 8
    • African Leaders Malaria Alliance
  • Americas A young farm worker in a corn field in Guatemala.
    Collaborations
    • Elimination of Malaria in Mesoamerica and Island of Hispaniola
    • Amazon Malaria Initiative
    • Malaria Zero
  • Eastern Mediterranean and Europe An 18-year-old woman milks a yak in Pamirs, Tajikistan, one of the highest, most remote places in the world. © 2013 Alovaddin K., Courtesy of Photoshare
    Collaborations
    • Gulf Cooperation Council

Global Progress

According to the latest estimates in the World Malaria Report (WMR) 2016, malaria cases fell in 2015 to an estimated 212 million, leading to 490,000 deaths—most of which were in children under five years old in Africa. There were an estimated 214 million malaria cases in 2014 and 262 million cases in 2000. Between 2000 and 2015, global malaria case incidence was reduced by 41% and malaria mortality rates declined by 62%.

At the beginning of 2016, malaria was considered to be endemic in 91 countries and territories, down from 108 in 2000. The WHO Global Technical Strategy for Malaria (GTS) calls for the elimination of malaria in at least 10 countries by the year 2020. This target is within reach: Nine countries reported between 150 and 1000 cases and 10 countries and territories reported fewer than 150 locally-acquired cases. However, the GTS also calls for a 40% reduction in malaria case incidence and mortality by 2020. According to the WMR, fewer than half (40) of the 91 countries with malaria transmission are on track to achieve these milestones.

Despite the reductions in cases and mortality rates seen in the past decade, getting to zero across the globe remains a massive undertaking. The national progress map above depicts the world as it is today, in 2017. Historical progress maps between 1900-1990 are also available. The following three maps depict the world as it could be in 2020, 2025, and 2030.